Singe-Family Housing Starts Rise For 4th Straight Month

New construction housing is in a post-recession rally.

As reported by the Census Bureau, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, last month's Single-Family Housing Starts rose 5 percent to 539,000 units nationwide. This is the highest reading since April 2010, the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started.

June's strong numbers also mark the fourth consecutive month during which Single-Family Housing Starts have climbed. This, too, has not occurred since April 2010.

The data is yet one more signal to Draper home buyers that today's new construction market has its worst days behind it.

Home builders think so, too.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders released its monthly Housing Market Index, a metric which tracks homebuilder confidence. Home builders report higher sales levels and massive foot traffic as compared to just 12 months ago. They also expect second-half sales in 2012 to climb sharply.

It's no wonder that home builder confidence rose to a 5-year high. Builders are building homes and buyers are buying them.

Today's market for new homes has been spurred forward by low mortgage rates, but rising rents have played a part, too. In many parts of the country, a comparable home is less expensive to own than to rent, which creates an incentive for renters to buy homes instead.

The availability of low downpayment mortgage programs via the FHA and other government agencies helps as well.

It's a good time to be home buyer. Mortgage rates are at all-time records, home prices remain low nationwide, and the real estate market is believed to be entering the beginning of a sustained, multi-year recovery.  

If you're undecided about whether now is a good time to buy a new home, speak with your real estate agent. The cost of home ownership may never be as low as it is today.

Homebuilder Confidence Doubles In 12 Months

Homebuilder confidence is soaring.

For the second time in three months, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that the Housing Market Index made sizable gains. 

The Housing Market Index measures homebuilder confidence in the new construction market and is scored between 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions in the single-family new home market. Readings below 50 indicate poor conditions.

The Housing Market Index leaped to 35 in July, a 6-point improvement and the index's biggest one-month gain since September 2002.

The HMI is now up 14 points this year and is more than double its value of one year ago.

The Housing Market Index itself is a composite of three separate survey questions sent to NAHB members monthly. The questions are basic :

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

For July 2012, home builders reported huge gains. Current home sales are up 6 points; sales expectations for the next six months are up 11 points; and buyer foot traffic is up 6 points.

All three survey answers made 5-year highs. Not since 2007 has sales volume and foot traffic been as strong, and over the next 6 months, builders expect a blow-out finish to the year.

It's no surprise, either.

Low mortgage rates throughout Utah have lowered monthly housing payments to levels below monthly rent for a comparable home. Plus, programs such as the FHA 3.5% downpayment program continue to help first-time buyers get in homes.

There is a downside to rising homebuilder confidence, however. When builders feel more comfortable about their business and the prospects for the future, they're less likely to make sales concessions to to offer free upgrades. If you're shopping for new construction, therefore, consider moving up your time frame.

Home affordability remains historically high today. It may not be so tomorrow.

Homebuilder Confidence Returns To Pre-Recession Levels

New construction buyers in Draper , look out. The nation's home builders are predicting a strong 2012 for new home sales. It may mean higher home prices as the spring buying season approaches.

For the sixth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that homebuilder confidence is on the rise. The Housing Market Index climbed four points to 29 in February, the index's highest reading since May 2007.

The Housing Market Index is now up 8 points in 8 weeks. The last time that happened was June 2003, a month during which the U.S. economy was regaining its footing, much like this month. It's noteworthy that June 2003 marked the start of a 4-year bull run in the stock market that took equities up 54%.

The NAHB's Housing Market Index itself is actually a composite reading. It's the end-result of three separate surveys sent to home builders monthly.

The association's questions are basic :

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

In February, builders reported marked improvement across all three areas. Builders report that current home sales climbed 5 points; that sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 5 points; and that buyer foot traffic climbed 1 point.

Most notable of all of the statistics, though, is that the nation's home builders report that there are now twice as many buyers setting foot inside model units as compared to just 6 months ago.

This data is supported by the monthly New Home Sales report which shows rising sales and a shrinking new home inventory.

Because of this, today's new home buyers throughout Utah  should expect fewer concessions from builders at the time of contract including fewer price breaks on a home and fewer free upgrades. Builders are optimistic for the future and, therefore, may be less willing to "make a deal".  

This spring may mark the best time of year to buy a new home. 60 days forward, it may be too late.

Home Builders See More Sales, Higher Prices Ahead

Homebuilder confidence is soaring.

For the fourth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports an increase in its Housing Market Index. The index climbed 4 points to 25 this month -- its second four-point gain since October.

With home sales activity increasing across all four regions, the monthly HMI has now nearly doubled in value since June 2011.

The HMI is now at a 55-month high. 

The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading; the result of three home builder surveys sent by the National Association of Homebuilders to its members monthly. Home builders report back on current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and current buyer "foot traffic".

The NAHB then results compiles the surveys into a single reading.

In January, home builders reported improving sales conditions across all three categories :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 25 (+3 from December)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 29 (+3 from December)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 21 (+3 from December)

The Housing Market Index corroborates recent U.S. government data that suggests housing is mending in Utah. Both Housing Starts and New Home Sales have out-performed expectations of late, it's been shown, and the stock of new homes for sale nationwide is dwindling.

All of this, of course, is happening as demand from buyers heats up.  Foot traffic through builder homes is higher than it's been in more than 3 years, say the builders -- a time period that includes the duration of the 2010 home buyer tax credit.

It's no surprise, therefore, that builders expect a strong 2012.

Jobs data is improving, mortgage rates remain low, and housing momentum is building. For home buyers in South Jordan , however, it may spell higher home prices ahead. Big demand and small supply creates scarcity and scarcity correlates to rising prices.

If you're shopping new homes, the best "deal" may be the one you find today.

Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?

Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.

Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It's the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.

The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It's meant to measure confidence among the nation's homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.

When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)

And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month's Housing Market Index.

In November, "Current Single Family Sales" climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 -- the month after last year's home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.

That's an important point for Sandy home buyers.

With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.

For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout Utah , and helps new home construction remain affordable.

If you're in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get "a deal".

Homebuilder Confidence Rises on Surging Sales Volume, Foot Traffic

Homebuilder confidence is rebounding sharply.

Just one month after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index rebounded four points to 18 for October. It's the highest reading for the HMI since May 2010 -- the month after last year's homebuyer tax credit expiration.

The Housing Market Index is published monthly by the National Association of Homebuilders and is scored on a scale of 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The index has been below 50 since May 2006 -- a 66-month streak.

The Housing Market Index is a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. Builders are asked about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current "foot traffic".

In October, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current single-family sales : 18 (+4 from September)
• Projected single-family sales : 24 (+7 from September)
• Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+3 from September)

Meanwhile, of particular interest to today's Sandy home buyers is that builders expect volume to surge over the next two seasons. And, with current sales volume rising and foot traffic strengthening, the fall and winter months could be strong ones in the new homes market.

In addition, the builder trade group press release states that rising costs for materials are squeezing building profit margins.

For buyers, it all adds up higher home prices ahead. As builders grow more confident about the housing market, they're less likely to make concessions on pricing or upgrades. Rising building costs fortify that argument. The "great deal" will be tougher to negotiate. 

At least mortgage rates are low.

Low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in Utah and nationwide. If you're looking for the right time to buy new construction, therefore, this month may be it.