A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 20, 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.

For the fifth consecutive meeting, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. 

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy has been "expanding moderately" this year. Beyond the next few quarters, the Fed expects growth to "pick up very gradually". 

In addition, the Fed re-acknowledged that "strains in global financial markets" continue to pose "significant downside risks" to the U.S. economic outlook. This statement is a repeat from the FOMC's April press release and is in reference to the sovereign debt concerns of Greece, Spain and Italy, plus the potential for a broader European economic slowdown.

The Fed's statement also included the following economic observations :

1. The housing sector remains "depressed"
2. Labor conditions have "slowed in recent months"
3. Household spending is "rising at a somewhat slower pace" than earlier this year

With respect to inflation, the Fed said that pressures have declined, led by falling oil and gasoline prices. Longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.

The biggest news of the FOMC meeting is that the Federal Reserve will be extending its "Operation Twist" program. The program sells shorter-term securities on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and uses the proceeds to purchase longer-term securities. This move puts "downward pressure on longer-term interest rates" and makes "broader financial conditions more accommodative."

The Fed also pledged to keep the Fed Funds Rate at "exceptionally low" levels at least through late-2014.

Mortgage markets are muted post-FOMC. There has been no real change in rates, although that may change later in the day, or weel. Mortgage rates in South Jordan remain at all-time lows.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event slated for July 31-August 1, 2012.

Housing Starts Up 26% In Last 12 Months

Sometimes, the housing data headlines tell just half the tale. The stories on May's Housing Starts figures are proving to be a terrific illustration.

Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its monthly Housing Starts report. A "housing start" is a home on which construction has started.

The report is separated by property type with a separate count for single family homes such as detached residences and town homes; for multiple-unit homes such as 2-unit, 3-unit and 4-unit structures; and, for buildings of 5-units of more such as new condominiums.

In May, Housing Starts fell 4.8 percent nationwide. This runs contrary to recent housing market statistics and home builder confidence data which both have suggested a recovery. The press picked up the story and ran the following headlines :

• Housing Starts In U.S. Fall 4.8% In May (BusinessWeek)
• Housing Starts Plunge, But Permits Surge In Mixed Market (CNBC)
• Housing Starts Slump In May (US News)

Although factually correct, these headlines are somewhat misleading. 

Housing Starts did slip 4.8 percent last month but that figure accounts for all Housing Starts. It fails isolate the single-family starts that matter to today's buyers and sellers throughout Utah. Homeowners rarely buy multi-unit homes or entire apartment buildings.

If we remove the report's tally of 2-4 unit homes and apartment buildings, we find that, in May, single-family housing starts rose for the 4th straight month, registering 516,000 homes started on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is the highest tally since April 2010, the last month of that year's frderal home buyer tax credit. 

Single-family housing starts are up 26% as compared to last year. 

The housing starts report, therefore -- headlines aside -- is the latest in a series of housing market data that points to a sustained recovery nationwide. If you're planning to buy a home in 2012, consider buying in between now and September because after that point, home prices and mortgage rates are likely to be higher.

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Building Confidence Rises To 5-Year High

Home builders anticipate growth in the market for newly-built, single-family homes.  

For June 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports its monthly Housing Market Index at 29 -- an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since May 2007.

When the Housing Market Index reads 50 or better, it's meant to indicate favorable conditions for builders in the single-family, new-construction market. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable conditions for builders.

The index has not been above 50 since April 2006. 

The NAHB Housing Market Index is not a "single survey" -- it's a composite. Three separate surveys are sent by the trade association to its members and roughly 400 builders respond. The NAHB's survey questions query builders on their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and, their current levels of buyer "foot traffic".

The results are then compiled into the NAHB Housing Market Index.

In June, home builders provided mixed replies :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 32 (+2 from May)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 34 (Unchanged from May)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 23 (Unchanged from May)

Of particular interest to today's new construction buyers is that builders are reporting higher levels of single-family sales, and expect their sales volume to increase over the next six months. This expectation is rooted in housing market momentum and low mortgage rates.

Never in recorded history have homes been as affordable as they are today and home buyers are taking notice. Foot traffic through builder models remains strong and is at its highest pace in more than 5 years. 

When demand for homes outweighs the supply of homes, home prices rise. If builder expectations are met, therefore, buyers in Sandy should expect new home prices to rise in 2012's second half.

Planning to buy new construction this year or next? Consider moving up your time frame.

10 Cities Projecting Home Value Increases Through 2013

Nationwide, the U.S. housing market is showing signs of recovery. Home prices are rising as demand for homes outweighs existing home supply in many metropolitan regions.

As is customary in real estate, though, the degrees to which home values change vary by area.

In some U.S. markets, the housing recovery is outpacing the national average. In other markets, it lags. In an effort to measure the changes, CNNMoney has named the 10 U.S. housing markets in which home prices may rise the fastest.

The list is stuffed with small- to mid-size cities, most of which have experienced huge price drops since the housing market's peak in 2007. The cities are gems, however, for the right type of home buyer. This may include real estate investors, first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and even parents with children in need of "college housing".

As listed by CNNMoney, the 10 cities in which home values are rising fastest are :

1. Madera, CA (Down 53.1% from peak; Forecast 21.5% gain through 2013)
2. Medford, OR (Down 37.1% from peak; Forecast 20.1% gain through 2013)
3. Yuma, AZ (Down 37.4% from peak; Forecast 16.7% gain through 2013)
4. Corvallis, OR (Down 11.4% from peak; Forecast 13.2% gain through 2013)
5. Eugene, OR (Down 21.2% from peak; Forecast 12.4% gain through 2013)
6. Olympia, WA (Down 26.3% from peak; Forecast 11.3% gain through 2013)
7. Boise, ID (Down 36.9% from peak; Forecast 11.0% gain through 2013)
8. Billings, MT (Down 3.0% from peak; Forecast 10.1% gain through 2013)
9. Lewiston, ID (Down 7.5% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)
10. Sante Fe, NM (Down 17.1% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)

These 10 cities are more diverse in their make-up than their geography. All ten can be found in the western half of the United States. However, whereas some cities are expected to excel as a result of proximity of universities -- Eugene and Corvallis, for example -- others are expected to excel for economic reasons.

This includes cities such as Yuma, which is in a Foreign Trade Zone.

Real estate remains a local market, though, and even within these ten cities, there will exist neighborhoods in which growth exceed national averages, and areas in which growth falls behind.

For accurate, real-time real estate data in South Jordan , be sure to speak with a real estate professional.

Georgia Takes Top Foreclosure Spot For First Time Since 2006

According to foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide rose 9 percent in May as compared to April 2012. Filing topped 200,000 units for the first time in 3 months.

The term "foreclosure filing" is a catch-all term comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. On average, 1 in every 639 U.S. homes receiving a foreclosure filing in May.

As in most months, foreclosure activity was concentrated by state. Just 6 states accounted for more than half of the nation's total filings.

Those six states were :

1. California : 13.6% of all repossessions
2. Florida : 11.0% of all repossessions
3. Georgia : 9.8% of all repossessions
4. Illinois : 6.6% of all repossessions
5. Michigan : 6.5% of all repossessions
6. Arizona : 6.3% of all repossessions

An interesting note, though, is that for the first time since February 2006, Georgia was the country's most foreclosure-heavy state, displacing Nevada, which has dominated the foreclosure landscape for the last 5 years.

1 in 300 Georgia homes received a foreclosure filing in May. The national average last month was 1 in 639 homes.

At the other end of the foreclosure spectrum is Vermont. There was just 1 foreclosure filing for every 15,539 homes in The Green Mountain State last month.

Meanwhile, distressed homes remain in high demand with today's home buyers, accounting for 28 percent of April's overall existing home sales based on data from the National Association of REALTORS®. However, if your home purchase plans call for buying a foreclosed or bank-owned home, make sure you do your research first.

Buying bank-owned property is a different process as compared to buying a non-distressed home. The purchase contracts are different, the buyer-seller negotiations are different, and the homes are sometimes sold with defects. This can make it difficult to get a mortgage -- or even impossible.

Before buying "distressed", therefore, be sure to with a real estate agent. It's good to have an experienced agent on your side to coach you through the process.